Séminaires SEEM

26 juin 2020, 11h30 (diffusion en visioconférence).

COVID-19 crisis epidemiological modelling.

Samuel Alizon

Link to seminar: à venir

Institute of Research and Development, Montpellier
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Although the SARS-Cov-2 virus was detected at the end of Dec 2019 and the WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on the 30th of Jan 2020, France was largely unprepared when the epidemic wave was officially detected in early March 2020. Improvisation was probably the rule at every level everywhere in the country. In particular, because of the absence of treatment or vaccine, the only way to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic was (and still is) to use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the implementation of which heavily relies on mathematical modelling. Unfortunately, French public health is more about treatment than prevention, which makes mathematical and statistical modelling accessory. On Mar 12, witnessing the gap between the number of studies and applications in France and in other countries (e.g. the UK or the USA), we decided to implement some classical population dynamics tools to analyse the French epidemics. One thing leading to another, we realised there was actually a need for more expertise in France on this crisis and that we could contribute original models or even types of analyses (e.g. phylodynamics). This seminar will present some of the modelling work we performed in the team and address related issues ranging from data availability to decision making processes in the time of crisis.

Recent publications:

Gonché Danesh, Baptiste Elie,Yannis Michalakis, Mircea T. Sofonea, Antonin Bal, Sylvie Behillil, Grégory Destras, David Boutolleau, Sonia Burrel, Anne-Geneviève Marcelin, Jean-Christophe Plantier, Vincent Thibault, Etienne Simon-Loriere, Sylvie van der Werf, Bruno Lina, Laurence Josset, Vincent Enouf, Samuel Alizon (2020, , medRxiv)) Early phylodynamics analysis of the COVID-19 epidemics in France

Mircea T. Sofonea, Bastien Reyné, Baptiste Elie, Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse, Christian Selinger, Yannis Michalakis, Samuel Alizon (2020, medRxiv) Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse, Yannis Michalakis, Marc Choisy, Mircea T. Sofonea, Samuel Alizon (2020, medRxiv) Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment