Research Interests
The main theme of my researches is the
study of accession to reproduction- and more broadly that of breeding
attempts- from the following of individually recognizable animals let free
in natural populations (HDR in french)
.
Often, the field sampling sessions when the animals can be encountered are
organized on a yearly basis but they can be separated by shorter and even
unequal time intervals; yet, the intervals I consider are always discrete.
The methods I develop towards these aims are used in other settings
(estimation of migrants stopover duration1, length of river
inhabited by a fish2
(Programme SODA)…).
There are 2 main difficulties with this type of data:
- the animal is not necessarily encountered during a field visit,
- even when it is, its status (breeder or non-breeder)
cannot always be assessed, at all or without some part of mistakes.
To achieve a good description of the data one needs to take into account
survival probabilities and transition probabilities among states but also
probabilities of encounter and of errors. From a methodological point of
view,
the biological hypotheses are translated into different models that must be
validated in the absolute (goodness-of-fit tests) and compared using
statistical tests (model comparison).
My main achievements are the development of methods for the study of
recruitment of new individuals into a group and the estimation of population
growth rate3, the construction of goodness-of-fit
capture-recapture models allowing transitions among states (multistate
models)4 and the design of models dealing with uncertainty in
state assignment5.
I write programmes in MATLAB during my research (example :
Programme Memnon
).
Then, the methods are passed on to R. Choquet and incorporated in more ‘professional’
programmes made available on the Web.
1. Schaub, M., R. Pradel, L. Jenni, and J.-D. Lebreton.
2001. Migrating birds stop over longer than usually thought: an improved
capture-recapture analysis. Ecology
82:852-859.
2. Danancher, D., J. Labonne, R. Pradel, and P. Gaudin (à paraître).
Capture Recapture Estimates of Space Used in Streams
(CRESUS) at the population scale : case study on Zingel asper (percid), a
threatened species of the Rhône catchment. Canadian journal of fisheries and
aquatic sciences.
3. Pradel, R. 1996. Utilization of Capture-mark-recapture for the study of
recruitment and population growth rate. Biometrics
52:703-709.
4. Pradel, R., C. M. A. Wintrebert, and O. Gimenez. 2003. A
proposal for a goodness-of-fit test to the Arnason-Schwarz multisite
capture-recapture model. Biometrics
59:43-53.
5. Pradel, R. soumis. Multievent : an extension of
capture-recapture models to uncertain states.
HDR, Thesis and DEA
PRADEL, R. (2003). Mesurer et
expliquer l'accession à la reproduction dans les populations animales libres.
Habilitation à diriger des recherches. Université Montpellier II
PRADEL, R. (1992).- Estimation et comparaison de probabilités de survie par
suivi individuel et utilisation en biologie des populations animales. Thèse de
Doctorat, Université Montpellier II.
PRADEL, R. (1988).- Nouvelles approches statistiques en capture-recapture. Un
exemple : Le test de parallélisme, Université Montpellier II.
Teaching
École doctorale
Biologie des systèmes intégrés AGRONOMIE ENVIRONNEMENT , Université
Montpellier II.
Master
Biostatistique Université Montpellier II, Montpellier I, Agro.M
Publications
2005
Gimenez, O., R. Choquet, L. Lamor, P. Scofield, D.
Fletcher, J.-D. Lebreton & R. Pradel (2005). "Efficient
Profile-Likelihood Confidence Intervals for Capture-Recapture Models."
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Sciences
10(2): 184-196.
Pradel, R. (2005). "Multievent:
an extension of multistate Capture-Recapture Models to uncertain states."
Biometrics 61: 442-447.
Pradel,
R., O. Gimenez & J.-D. Lebreton (2005). "Principles and
interest of GOF tests for multistate capture-recapture models."
Animal Biodiversity and Conservation 28(2): 189–204.
Pradel, R., M. Schaub, L. Jenni & J.-D. Lebreton
(2005). "Migrating birds stop over longer than usually thought: Reply."
Ecology 86(12): 3418-9.
Reed, E. T., G.
Gauthier et R. Pradel (2005). "Effects of neck bands on reproduction and
survival of female greater snow geese." Journal of Wildlife Management
69(1): 91-100.
Rivalan, P., A.-C. Prévot-Julliard, R. Choquet, R.
Pradel, B. Jacquemin & M. Girondot (2005). "Trade-off between current
reproductive effort and delay to next reproduction in the leatherback sea
turtle." Oecologia 145(4): 564-74.
Wintrebert, C. M. A., A. H. Zwinderman, E. Cam, R.
Pradel & J. C. van Houwelingen (2005). "Joint modelling of breeding and
survival in the kittiwake using frailty models." Ecological
Modelling 181: 203-13.
2004
Cam, E., D. Oro, R. Pradel et J. Jimenez (2004).
"Assessment of hypotheses about dispersal in a long-lived seabird using multistate capture-recapture models." Journal of Animal Ecology 73:
723-736.
Choquet, R., A.-M. Reboulet, R.
Pradel, O. Gimenez, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2004. M–SURGE: new software
specifically designed for multistate capture–recapture models. Animal
Biodiversity and Conservation 27.
Danancher, D., J. Labonne, R. Pradel & P. Gaudin
(2004). "Capture–recapture estimates of space used in streams (CRESUS) at
the population scale: case study on Zingel asper (percid), a threatened
species of the Rhône catchment." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and
Aquatic Sciences 61(3): 476-486.
Grégoire, A., M. Préault, F. Cézilly, M. J. Wood, R.
Pradel & B. Faivre (2004). "Stabilizing natural selection on the early
expression of a secondary sexual trait in a passerine bird."
Journal of Evolutionary Biology 17: 1152-6.
Kendall, W. L., J. R. Sauer, J. D. Nichols, R. Pradel
& J. E. Hines (2004). On the use of capture-recapture models in mist-net
studies. Monitoring bird populations using mist nets. C. J. Ralph and E. H.
Dunn. Lawrence, KS, USA, Allen Press. 29: 173-181.
Oro, D., E. Cam, R. Pradel et A. Martínez-Abraín (2004).
"Influence of food availability on demography and local population dynamics in
a long-lived seabird." Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series
B-Biological Sciences 271: 387-96.
Schaub,
M., O. Gimenez, B. Schmidt et R. Pradel (2004). "Estimating
survival and temporary emigration in the multistate capture-recapture
framework." Ecology 85(8): 2107–2113.
Schaub, M. et R. Pradel (2004). "Assessing the relative
importance of different sources of mortality from recoveries of marked
animals." Ecology 85(4): 930-8.
Schaub, M.,
R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2004. Is the reintroduced White Stork (Ciconia
ciconia) population in Switzerland self-sustainable? Biological
Conservation.
2003
Choquet, R., A.-M.
Reboulet, R. Pradel, O. Gimenez, and J.-D. Lebreton.
2003. User's
manual for M-SURGE 1.0. Mimeographed document CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier, France.
Henry, P.-Y.,
R. Pradel, and P. Jarne. 2003. Environment-dependent inbreeding
depression in a hermaphroditic freshwater snail. Journal of Evolutionary
Biology 16:1211-1222.
Lebreton,
J.-D., J. E. Hines, R. Pradel, J. D. Nichols, and J. A. Spendelow.
2003. Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over
several sites. Oikos 101:253-264.
Perret, N.,
R. Pradel, C. Miaud, O. Grolet, and P. Joly. 2003. Transience,
dispersal, and survival rates in newt patchy populations.
Journal of Animal Ecology
72:567-575.
Pradel,
R. 2003. Mesurer et expliquer l'accession à la reproduction dans les
populations animales libres. Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches. Université
Montpellier II, Montpellier, France.
Pradel,
R., C. M. A. Wintrebert, and O. Gimenez. 2003. A proposal for a
goodness-of-fit test to the Arnason-Schwarz multisite capture-recapture model.
Biometrics 59:43-53.
Reed, E. T.,
G. Gauthier, R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2003. Age and environmental
conditions affect recruitment in greater snow geese. Ecology 84:219-230.
2002
Lebreton,
J.-D., and R. Pradel. 2002. Multistate recapture models: modelling
incomplete individual histories. Journal of Applied Statistics 29:353-369.
Spendelow, J.
A., J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, J.-D. Lebreton, and R. Pradel. 2002.
Modeling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in
species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner
Island, Connecticut.
Journal of Applied
Statistics 29:385-405.
Tavecchia,
G., R. Pradel, F. Gossmann, C. Bastat, Y. Ferrand, and J.-D. Lebreton.
2002. Temporal variation in annual survival probability of the Eurasian
Woodcock Scolopax rusticola wintering in France. Wildlife Biology 8:21-30.
Tavecchia,
G., R. Pradel, J.-D. Lebreton, L. Biddau, and T. Mingozzi. 2002.
Sex-biased survival and breeding dispersal probability in a patchy population
of the Rock Sparrow Petronia petronia. Ibis 144:E79-87.
2001
Bennetts, R.
E., J. D. Nichols, J.-D. Lebreton, R. Pradel, J. E. Hines, and W. M.
Kitchens. 2001. Methods for estimating dispersal probabilities and related
parameters using marked animals. Pages 3-17 in J. Clobert, E. Danchin,
A. A. Dhondt, and J. D. Nichols, editors. Dispersal. Oxford University Press,
New York.
Choquet, R.,
A.-M. Reboulet, R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2001. U-care (Utilities
- CApture-REcapture) user's guide.
CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier.
Frederiksen,
M., and R. Pradel. 2001. Comment on Schwarz and Arnason: "Estimation of
age-specific breeding probabilities from capture-recapture data".
Biometrics 57:975-976.
Gauthier, G.,
R. Pradel, S. Menu, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2001. Seasonal survival of
greater snow geese and effect of hunting under dependence in sighting
probabilities. Ecology 82:3105-3119.
Prévot-Julliard, A.-C., R. Pradel, R. Julliard, V. Grosbois, and J.-D.
Lebreton. 2001. Hatching date influences age at first reproduction in the
Black-headed Gull.
Oecologia 127:62-68.
Schaub, M.,
R. Pradel, L. Jenni, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2001. Migrating birds stop
over longer than usually thought: an improved capture-recapture analysis.
Ecology 82:852-859.
Tavecchia,
G., R. Pradel, V. Boy, A. R. Johnson, and F. Cézilly. 2001. Sex- and
age-related variation in survival and cost of first reproduction in Greater
Flamingos. Ecology 82:165-174.
Tavecchia,
G., R. Pradel, J.-D. Lebreton, A. R. Johnson, and J.-Y. Mondain-Monval.
2001. The effect of lead exposure on survival of adult mallards in the
Camargue, southern France. Journal of Applied Ecology 38:1197-1207.
2000
Nichols, J.
D., J. E. Hines, J.-D. Lebreton, and R. Pradel. 2000. Estimation of
contributions to population growth: a reverse-time capture-recapture approach.
Ecology 81:3362-3376.
Oro, D., and
R. Pradel. 2000. Determinants of local recruitment in a growing colony
of Audouin's gull. Journal of Animal Ecology 69:119-132.
Pradel,
R., and P.-Y. Henry.
2000. Suivi individuel
dans les petites populations: l'exemple de la Cigogne Blanche Ciconia
ciconia. Revue d'Ecologie (Terre et Vie) 7S:109-111.
1999
Henry, P.-Y.,
J.-P. Nougarède, R. Pradel, and M. Cheylan. 1999. Survival rates and
demography of the Hermann's tortoise Testudo hermanni in Corsica,
France. Pages 189-196 in C. Miaud and R. Guyétant, editors. Current
studies in herpetology. Societas Europaea Herpetologica, Le Bourget du
Lac, France.
Lambrechts,
M. M., J. Blondel, A. Caizergues, P. C. Dias, R. Pradel, and D. W.
Thomas. 1999. Will estimates of lifetime recruitment of breeding offspring on
small-scale study plots help us to quantify processes underlying adaptation?
Oikos 86:147-151.
Lebreton,
J.-D., T. Alméras, and R. Pradel. 1999. Competing events, mixture of
information and multistrata recapture models. Bird Study 46:39-46.
Oro, D., and
R. Pradel. 1999. Recruitment of Audouin's gull to the Ebro Delta colony
at metapopulation level in the western Mediterranean. Marine Ecology
Progress Series 180:267-273.
Oro, D., R.
Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1999. Food availability and nest predation
influence life history traits in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii.
Oecologia 118:438-445.
Pradel,
R., and J.-D. Lebreton. 1999. Comparison of different approaches to the study
of local recruitment of breeders. Bird Study 46:74-81.
Reboulet,
A.-M., A. Viallefont, R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1999. Selection of
survival and recruitment models with SURGE 5.0. Bird Study 46:148-156.
1998
Hafner, H.,
Y. Kayser, V. Boy, M. Fasola, A.-C. Julliard, R. Pradel, and F.
Cézilly. 1998. Local survival, natal dispersal, and recruitment in Little
Egrets
Egretta garzetta. Journal of Avian Biology 29:216-227.
Langtimm, C.
A., T. J. O'Shea, R. Pradel, and C. A. Beck. 1998. Estimates of annual
survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus
latirostris). Ecology 79:981-997.
Prévot-Julliard, A.-C., J.-D. Lebreton, and R. Pradel. 1998.
Re-evaluation of adult survival of Black-headed Gull (Larus ridibundus)
in presence of recapture heterogeneity. The Auk 115:85-95.
Prévot-Julliard, A.-C., R. Pradel, J.-D. Lebreton, and F. Cézilly.
1998. Evidence for birth-site tenacity in breeding Black-headed Gulls,
Larus ridibundus.
Canadian Journal of Zoology 76:2295-2298.
1997
Pradel,
R. 1997. Capture-recapture. Pages 65-81 in A. Bar-Hen, editor.
Données comptage.
CIRAD, Montpellier.
Pradel,
R., J. E. Hines, J.-D. Lebreton, and J. D. Nichols. 1997. Capture-recapture
survival models taking account of transients. Biometrics 53:60-72.
Pradel,
R., A. R. Johnson, A. Viallefont, R. G. Nager, and F. Cézilly. 1997. Local
recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: a new approach using
capture-mark-recapture data. Ecology 78:1431-1445.
Pradel,
R., N. Rioux, A. Tamisier, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1997. Individual turnover among
wintering teal in Camargue: a mark-recapture study. Journal of Wildlife
Management 61:816-821.
1996
Cooch, E. G.,
R. Pradel, and N. Nur. 1996. A practical Guide to Mark-Recapture
Analysis Using SURGE.
Centre d’Ecologie
Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CNRS, Montpellier, France.
Pradel,
R. 1996. Animal dispersal within subdivided populations: an approach based on
monitoring individuals.
Acta Oecologica
17:475-483.
Pradel,
R. 1996. Modélisation et estimation de la dispersion de recrutement dans
les populations animales. Projet de coopération CNRS/NSF CNRS,
Montpellier, France.
Pradel,
R. 1996. Utilization of Capture-mark-recapture for the study of recruitment
and population growth rate. Biometrics 52:703-709.
Pradel,
R., J. E. Hines, J.-D. Lebreton, and J. D. Nichols. 1996. Capture-recapture
survival models taking account of transients.
Rapport de recherche de
l'unité de biométrie
96-03, E.N.S.A.-M, Montpellier, France.
1995
Lebreton,
J.-D., B. J. T. Morgan, R. Pradel, and S. N. Freeman. 1995. A
simultaneous survival rate analysis of dead recovery and live recapture data.
Biometrics 51:1418-1428.
Pradel,
R., E. G. Cooch, and F. Cooke. 1995. Transient animals in a resident
population of snow geese: local emigration or heterogeneity? Journal of
Applied Statistics 22:695-710.
Pradel,
R., A.-M. Reboulet, and A. Viallefont. 1995. Testing hypotheses and estimating
survival from capture histories with CR. Journal of Applied Statistics
22:775-784.
Pugesek, B.
H., C. Nations, K. L. Diem, and R. Pradel. 1995. Mark-resighting
analysis of a California gull population. Journal of Applied Statistics
22:625-639.
1993
Clobert, J.,
and R. Pradel.
1993. Modélisation de
quelques paramètres démographiques dans les populations animales suivies par
capture, marquage et recapture : revue et perspectives. Pages 151-174 in
J.-D. Lebreton and B. Asselain, editors. Biométrie et Environnement.
Masson, Paris.
Gaillard,
J.-M., D. Delorme, J.-M. Boutin, G. Van Laere, B. Boisaubert, and R. Pradel.
1993. Roe deer survival patterns: a comparative analysis of contrasting
populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 62:778-791.
Lebreton,
J.-D., R. Pradel, and J. Clobert. 1993. The statistical analysis of
survival in animal populations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:91-95.
Lebreton,
J.-D., A.-C. Prévot-Julliard, and R. Pradel.
1993. Mécanismes de
dispersion-recrutement dans la population forézienne de Mouette rieuse
Larus ridibundus. Rapport SRETIE 90-192, Ministère de
l'Environnement.
Paradis, E.,
G. Guedon, and R. Pradel. 1993. Estimation of sex- and age-related
survival rates in a microtine population. Journal of Wildlife Management
57:158-163.
Pradel,
R. 1993. Flexibility in Survival analysis from recapture data: Handling
trap-dependence. Pages 29-37 in J.-D. Lebreton and P. M. North,
editors. Marked individuals in the study of bird population. Birkhaüser
Verlag, Basel, Switzerland.
Pradel,
R., and J.-D. Lebreton. 1993. User's manual for program SURGE (version 4.2).
Document ronéotypé
CEFE CNRS et Praxème, Montpellier, France.
1992
Blondel, J.,
R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1992. Low fecundity insular blue tits do
not survive better than high fecundity mainland ones. Journal of Animal
Ecology 61:205-213.
Cézilly, F.,
R. Pradel, A. Viallefont, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1992. Working with CR,
a guide with examples.
Document polycopié
CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier, France.
Pradel,
R. 1992.
Estimation et comparaison de probabilités de survie par suivi individuel et
utilisation en biologie des populations.
Doctorat. Université Montpellier II, Montpellier.
Tamisier, A.,
and R. Pradel.
1992. Analyse statistique
de l'habitat hivernal diurne du canard siffleur Anas penelope L. en
Camargue. Perspectives de gestion. Revue d'Ecologie (Terre et Vie)
47:135-150.
1991
Pradel,
R. 1991. Program SURGE. CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier, France.
Pradel,
R., and J.-D. Lebreton. 1991. User's manual for program SURGE (version 4.1).
Document ronéotypé
CEFE CNRS, Montpellier, France.
1990
Blondel, J.,
and R. Pradel. 1990. Is adult survival of the Blue Tit higher in a low
fecundity insular population than in a high fecundity mainland one? Pages
131-143 in J. Blondel, A. Gosler, J.-D. Lebreton, and R. McCleery,
editors. Population Biology of Passerine Birds - an integrated approach.
Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Kanyamibwa,
S., A. Schierer, R. Pradel, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1990. Changes in adult
annual survival in a western european population of White Stork (Ciconia
ciconia). Ibis 132:27-35.
Marboutin,
E., M. Benmergui, R. Pradel, and A. Fiechter. 1990. Survival patterns
in wild and captive-reared leverets (Lepus europaeus Pallas) determined
by telemetry. Gibier faune sauvage 7:325-342.
Pradel,
R., J. Clobert, and J.-D. Lebreton. 1990. Recent developments for the analysis
of capture-recapture multiple data sets. An example concerning two blue tit
populations. The Ring 13:193-204.
Rioux, N., R.
Pradel, J.-D. Lebreton, and A. Tamisier.
1990. Analyse préliminaire
des durées de séjour des Sarcelles d'hiver (Anas c. crecca) au cours d'une
saison d'hivernage en Camargue. Compte Rendu de fin de convention
SRETIE 89-343, Ministère de l'Environnement.
1988
Pradel,
R. 1988. Nouvelles approches statistiques en capture-recapture un exemple :
Le test de parallélisme. Diplôme d'Etudes Approfondies Université des
Sciences et Tecnhiques du Languedoc, Montpellier.
Recent presentations
Choquet R., A.-M. Reboulet,
R. Pradel, O. Gimenez, J.-D. Lebreton. (2003). M-SURGE - New software for
multistate recapture models. EURING conference.
Radolfzell,
Germany.
Pradel, R., O. Gimenez, J.-D. Lebreton. (2003). Principles and interest of
GOF tests for multistate models. EURING conference.
Radolfzell,
Germany.
Pradel, R.,
Maurin-Bernier, Oro, D., Gimenez, O., Genovart, Choquet, R. (2003).
Determination of sex in Larus audouinii: a model incorporating
possibility of error.
EURING conference.
Radolfzell,
Germany.
Pradel R. (2003).
Goodness-of-fit tests for single state and multistate models. EURING
conference. Radolfzell, Germany
Software
Choquet, R., Reboulet, A.M., Pradel, R., Gimenez, O., Lebreton, J.-D.
(2003). User’s manual for M-SURGE 1.0. Mimeographed document, CEFE/CNRS,
Montpellier (ftp://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr/biom/Soft-CR/Last_Update/).
Choquet, R.,
Reboulet, A.M., Pradel, R., Gimenez, O., Lebreton, J.-D. (2003). User’s
manual for U-CARE. Mimeographed document, CEFE/CNRS, Montpellier (ftp://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr/biom/Soft-CR/Last_Update/).
Choquet, R.,
Pradel, R. (2003). User’s manual for SODA. Mimeographed document, CEFE/CNRS,
Montpellier (
ftp://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr/biom/Soft-CR/Archives/)
Pradel, R. (2004). Internal
organisation of program MEMNON. Program for fitting the memory model to
multistate capture-recapture data.
(
ftp://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr/biom/Soft-CR/Tools/).
Choquet, R., A.-M. Reboulet, R.
Pradel, O. Gimenez, and J.-D. Lebreton. 2004. M–SURGE: new software
specifically designed for multistate capture–recapture models. Animal
Biodiversity and Conservation 27.
ROGER
PRADEL 
